Keir Starmer, leader of Britain's opposition Labour Party, attends a campaign rally at a farm in Oxfordshire, Britain, July 1, 2024.
Phil Noble | Reuters
LONDON — Britain's new government faces a complex international landscape after Britons go to the polls on July 4.
Labour leader Keir Starmer is widely expected to lead his party to victory, promising to launch a “decade of national renewal” after 14 years under the Conservative Party.
But the centre-left politician will also seek to redefine the UK’s international image in the wake of Brexit, a recent string of domestic political and economic blunders and a more fragmented global landscape. CNBC looks at the foreign policy priorities for the incoming administration.
Navigating US-China trade tensions
A key item on the new administration's agenda will be dealing with the sensitive relations between the global powers and their geopolitical rivals, the US and China.
Labour will be eager to preserve Britain's so-called “special relationship” with its transatlantic ally, presenting a united front in areas of shared strategic interest. But it will also have to adapt to a more protectionist and likely more unpredictable in the US, especially in the event of a change of power after the US presidential election in November.
“You can imagine that the relationship between the incoming personalities of Keir Starmer and Donald Trump would be an awkward one,” David Dunn, a professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham, told CNBC by phone. “But they will work together.”
Britain, like the EU, finds itself in a remarkably ambiguous position, dependent on China but also concerned about territorial acquisition and regional threats.
David Dunn
professor of international politics at the University of Birmingham
Progress on a UK-US free trade deal – one of the key promises of the Brexit campaign – is also likely to be limited, given the current interest from both Republican and Democratic governments. Britain could instead be expected to focus on certain “sector deals” and continue partnerships on military and critical technologies, Chatham House directors Bronwen Maddox and Olivia O’Sullivan said in a May note.
As China becomes more assertive, Labour is likely to continue the UK's current stance of “deliberate strategic ambiguity”, Dunn said, taking into account the country's economic ties with Beijing amid concerns over geopolitical issues and national security. Ministers of Labor — like the Tories — met with a Chinese-founded fast fashion giant ahead of a potential IPO in London, despite disputes over its human rights record.
“Britain is in a remarkably ambiguous position, as is the EU, with its dependence on China but also concerns about territorial acquisition and regional threats,” Dunn said.
Restoring EU relations
It is also likely that Labour will seek closer cooperation with the European Union.
Starmer, who campaigned to ensure that the Remain movement did not leave the bloc in the UK referendum in 2016, and has said that there “no case” for rejoining the EU, including the single market and customs union. He has nevertheless pledged to improve the “botched” UK-EU deal, including in areas such as trade, research and security.
“There may be opportunities to revisit the core elements of the trading relationship. Not immediately, but only after both sides have restored trust and the relationship becomes smoother,” Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe for Eurasia Group, told CNBC by telephone.
Protesters march with large flags during The National Rejoin March. Pro-EU groups demonstrated in central London, UK.
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The UK’s steadfast support for Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion has also helped soften ties with its EU neighbours, and established its post-Brexit role in bolstering European security. This stance looks set to be maintained under a Labour government.
“This support has strengthened the dialogue between the UK and EU countries on shared risks, which in turn provides an opportunity for a more constructive discussion about the post-Brexit relationship,” said Chatham House’s Maddox and O’Sullivan.
Improving national security
Strengthening the UK's national security will also be a key priority for Labour, given rising global tensions and ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In its election manifesto, Labour reflected the Conservatives' plans to increase defense spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), but replaced the 2023 timeline with ambitions to achieve the target “As fast as we can.”
The UK should play a consistent role in global issues, particularly climate change, international development and arms control.
Bronwen Maddox and Olivia O'Sullivan
directors at Chatham House
However, given the current geopolitical landscape, Chatham House recommended increasing this defence spending to a minimum of 3%.
Starmer has also said that Labour “will maintain an unwavering commitment to NATO and our nuclear deterrent, and will refocus on improving morale in our armed forces.” However, discussions about the future shape of the transatlantic military alliance are likely to continue into the next US administration.
Strengthening the international order
A broader priority for Starmer might be to make Britain a stable power in a year of global elections and political turmoil.
“There is an attempt to be a pillar of stability in a changing world,” Dunn said, adding that Labour could provide a counterbalance to changing political sentiments in Europe and the US
“Britain was an early adopter of populism. While much of the rest of the western world is moving to the right, the UK is moving to the left,” he said.
According to Chatham House directors, the areas of influence are likely to be diplomacy, security and international rule of law, areas in which the UK already has strong expertise.
“The UK should play a consistent role on global issues where it has credibility, particularly on climate change, international development, arms control and technology governance,” Chatham House's O'Sullivan and Maddox added.
