A look at the statistics from Liverpool's match against Crystal Palace will show that the Reds played as they usually do: they outwitted, outplayed and outscored the opposition by wide margins. For all their tactical successes on Sunday, Liverpool somehow failed to do what they were supposed to do: score, and as a result Liverpool lost 1-0 at home to Palace in a match that might just see them out of the could win a match. the Premier League title race they had long faced.
Liverpool got off to a slow start and paid the price in the 14th minute when Palace's smooth build-up play allowed Tyrick Mitchell to play a pass into the center of the penalty area, where Eberechi Eze made a run and finished easily from close range.
The goal was a wake-up call for a Liverpool team looking to bounce back from a tough week in which they drew 2-2 with Manchester United and lost 3-0 to Atalanta in the Europa League quarter-finals. With Mohamed Salah, Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez in the line-up, the Reds ultimately managed 21 shots and 2.87 expected goals, far better than the eight and 1.87 that Palace managed in the respective categories.
However, these two numbers alone are emblematic of the problem that several other statistics can help explain. Palace were arguably more efficient with their attacking options, and Liverpool were noticeably wasteful with theirs. Jurgen Klopp's team put just six of their 21 shots on frame, generating the most expected goals of a Premier League team without scoring a goal since Brighton and Hove Albion in a 0-0 draw against Norwich in April 2022. per Opta. Ultimately, that inefficiency resulted in Liverpool's first Premier League defeat at Anfield since Jesse Marsch's Leeds United team in October 2022.
It's not exactly unusual for Liverpool to play like this: they're among the top three in the league in terms of goals and shots on target, and they lead the Premier League in terms of shots and expected goals. However, they rank 15th for shots on target percentage, with only 34% of their 650 chances being put on target. Liverpool have largely gotten away with it this season, mainly because the quality of their shots has been inconsistent, but the fact they are generating enough good chances will get them over the line. Such was the case in their 3-1 win over Sheffield United earlier this month, when they were level with the last-place team for almost 20 minutes.
Liverpool have teetered on the edge of this strategy at times this season, almost raising the question of whether they could actually get away with it. They certainly didn't do that against Palace, thanks in part to another of their relative weaknesses. They have conceded the second fewest goals in the Premier League but have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten games, a worse record than their fellow rivals for the title. Manchester City scored three in that period and Arsenal six in the Premier League. their final 10 comes in this weekend as they start to build their case as a defensively resilient side.
It now keeps Liverpool in second place, but the weekend could end with them in third place, two short weeks after they were in first place. With six games to go, they certainly have no chance of winning the Premier League, but the loss against Palace shows that the margins are not only tight at the top of the table. The competitiveness of the race also resembles the fragility of Liverpool's tactical strategy this season. It's an approach that can keep you in the conversation until mid-April, but can quickly go off the rails if the perfect balance isn't found.
