Paris — Voters in France go to the polls on Sunday for the first of two rounds of an election to select 577 members of the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament. The snap elections were summoned by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9 after its reigning Renaissance feast performed poorly in elections to the European Parliament, which governs the 27 member states of the European Union.
The rushed vote left French political parties with just 20 days to form alliances, gain support and convince people to vote for their candidates.
Why are there two rounds in the French elections?
The French two-vote majority system was adopted in a referendum in 1962 and first introduced in the 1965 presidential elections.
The candidates with the highest score in the first round will advance to the second round. Voters can only choose one candidate. The argument was that the second round gives voters another chance to vote for their favorite party, even if their favorite candidate is eliminated in the first round.
It was seen as a fairer system and proponents claimed that the two-round voting would provide more political stability. However, in recent years the opposite has been proven and there have been calls to abolish the system and replace it with a single-round voting system, as is the case in most countries in Europe.
Observers often suggest that the French vote with their hearts in the first round and with their minds in the second round. That trend was clearly visible in recent presidential elections with far-right candidates. For example, left-wing voters gritted their teeth en masse and voted for the conservative Jacques Chirac instead of the then far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen in the 2002 presidential elections.
Only a handful of countries use a two-round system. Many of them are former French colonies that inherited France's system.
When will the election results be announced?
Full results will likely be available on July 8, the day after the second round.
However, the first results of the exit polls are expected to be available once the election closes around 2pm on 7 July. These results are usually very accurate in France, but the fractured nature of the political landscape may make it difficult to make an accurate prediction quickly based on the results of the first round this time around.
It is reasonable to expect at least some indication of key trends on the night of July 7.
Who is expected to win the French parliamentary elections?
Opinion polls ahead of the first round showed the far-right group of parties led by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) firmly in the lead, projected to win 36% of the vote. Polls suggest the far-right group has a good chance of also making it to the second, decisive round of voting on July 7.
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Polls show a combination of left-wing, far-left and several green parties are likely to finish in second place in Sunday's first round of elections, with around 29% of the vote.
Following in the background is the centrist group led by Macron's Renaissance Party, which according to opinion polls will receive only about 19.5% of the vote.
France has gradually moved to the right in recent years, but this is the first time that far-right parties have a real shot at leading a new government.
The traditional, more centrist parties that led France for decades have lost ground over the past two decades as voters went to extremes.
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However, the Socialist Party – now more centre-left than socialist – did well in the European elections and is determined to have a say in how the combined left group proceeds to the second round. Whether it can win enough votes to mitigate the rise of the far right remains a big question.
What are the possible consequences for President Macron?
Whatever happens on July 7, it seems likely that France is heading for a period of “cohabitation,” in which a president from one party or political persuasion will have to govern alongside a government from another party or political persuasion.
This can lead to problems in passing laws and agreeing budgets.
There have been a few cohabitations in modern France, most notably the first from 1986 to 1988, when Chirac was prime minister under the socialist president Francois Mitterrand. Personal relationships play an important role in the success of a cohabitation. Mitterrand despised Chirac and rarely missed an opportunity to be condescending about or to his prime minister.
Relations were much easier later when Chirac, as president, lived with the Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, whom he knew well. Macron and RN frontrunner Jordan Bardella have no such relationship to build on, and if the far-right parties win enough seats to claim the premiership in a new coalition government, it will likely be a bumpy ride.
After his surprise announcement that he would dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections, Macron assured the French people that he would not be going anywhere until the end of his mandate: “You can trust that I will act as your president until May 2027 , that I will be the protector of our republic, of our values, at all times, respecting the plurality of your choices, at your service and that of the nation.”
Why are the French elections so important for Europe and beyond?
As a major player in the EU, all eyes are on France as neighbours worry about the impact of the election results on the bloc, which saw an overall rightward shift in recent EU-wide elections.
Over the past decades, France and Germany have led European policy in an effective partnership. As Germany has become more involved in domestic affairs in recent years, France has taken on more of those roles in international affairs on its own. Macron sees his country’s role in international politics as fundamental, and he is keen, for example, to speak as the EU’s leading voice on Ukraine.
Douglas Webber, emeritus professor of political science at the INSEAD business school in Paris, believes that Europe has reason to be concerned about the French elections. He says cohabitation would mean “uncertain prospects or likely very negative consequences for France's role and for its involvement in the EU.” .”
Speaking to journalists at the Anglo-American Press Association in Paris, Webber said the uncertainty could last until the next presidential election in 2027, when far-right leader Le Pen has set her sights firmly on winning the presidency.
Webber noted that Le Pen had already indicated that she wants to “reform the EU and essentially reduce its powers and withdraw France from NATO, among other things.”
That, he warned, would be “a pretty good outcome for Vladimir Putin, and not very encouraging for the future and fate of Ukraine.”
