A barrage of missiles was exchanged this week between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, U.S. officials have grown increasingly concerned that the escalation could spiral the war-torn region into a broader conflict between the U.S. ally and the Iran-backed militia.
Since October 7, the Biden administration has been working frantically behind the scenes to reduce the chance of a fire that could attract the US or further endanger US troops stationed in the region in Syria, Iraq and Jordan . Amos Hochstein, a top diplomatic adviser to President Biden, is heading to Israel on Monday to work to de-escalate the conflict, a US official said.
US officials expressed concern about several scenarios. Some told CBS News that they interpret Israel's recent deeper attacks on Lebanese territory as preparing the battlefield for a major attack by the Israeli army. Hezbollah has responded by launching larger rocket attacks on Israel. These officials are increasingly concerned that Israel will start a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which the country cannot end without American support.
Other US officials tell CBS their concerns are focused on Hezbollah and described a scenario in which the scale of rocket attacks on Israel could result in unintended consequences that trigger an event to which Israel feels compelled to respond and which could then result in an unintended war. .
Within Israel, the Hezbollah threat has become a potent political issue as many Israelis who evacuated their homes in the north of the country remain displaced. After Hamas' attack in Israel on October 7 and the outbreak of war in Gaza, many residents of northern Israel and southern Lebanon left their homes for fear that they were living in an area that could soon become a battlefield.
The increased cross-border exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah make it more difficult for the US to defuse tensions in the region, especially if the Biden administration's efforts to reach a resolution hostage taking and ceasefire in Gaza founder. The government views the ceasefire talks and tensions between Israel and Hezbollah as intertwined.
A senior Biden administration official told reporters in Italy on Thursday: “The most important thing about the release of hostages and the ceasefire that is now on the table is that if it is achieved, it could have an impact in the north . [of Israel]So that is an opportunity for us to bring this conflict to a complete conclusion.”
The official also said that as part of a ceasefire agreement, there should be “specific arrangements in Lebanon at the border.”
“There must be an agreement that allows Israelis to return to their homes in the north with security guarantees that it is not October 6 that Hezbollah… is right on the blue line.”
The recent Israeli attack that killed commander Taleb Abdullah, one of Hezbollah's most senior members, has led to reprisals. Public events mourning Abdullah are expected in the coming days.
Unlike Hamas' surprise attack in October, a possible war with Hezbollah in Lebanon is something the Israeli military has been eyeing for years, US officials said.
Israeli forces in the northern command are training in brigade-sized units but are not yet in a position to launch an attack, a US official said.
David Martin
