Chairman of the ruling African National Congress and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa at a meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 25, 2024.
Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Some thirty years after the peaceful transition from apartheid to democracy, South Africa could once again be on the eve of change.
Since coming to power in South Africa's first democratic elections in 1994, the African National Congress has focused on making inclusivity a core pillar of the country's economy.
But its efforts to raise the living standards of the underprivileged have not always been successful, and Wednesday's elections are expected to see the party's dominance decline.
Current opinion polls show that the ANC, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, could see its share of the vote fall below 50% for the first time.
Although Nelson Mandela's party received 57.5% support in the last national election, it had already almost lost power in key areas such as the country's economic hub, Gauteng.
Of the 62 million inhabitants, that is more than There are 27.6 million South Africans registered to vote. Turnout could be a concern as voter apathy increases.
In the last National Assembly elections in 2019, turnout was 66%, already 7 percentage points lower than the previous vote. Even with the highest possible turnout, the ANC's result is expected to fall below 50%.
Blackouts, unemployment, corruption and crime
The problems facing the country are numerous and remain systemic.
Africa's most industrialized country has a weak electricity grid that has led to… hundreds of hours of power outages hampering development and production.
Vehicles drive down a dark street without lights during a power outage in central Johannesburg, South Africa, on February 13, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
It also struggles with an unemployment rate of almost 33% – one of the highest in the world – anemic economic growth that may not reach 1% this year and corruption scandals that have highlighted weaknesses in the governance of the ANC and its subsidiaries.
In addition, the country has one of the highest violent crime rates in the world 45 murders for every 100,000 people.
Voters have much more choice this time, with many more candidates to choose from.
About 14,889 candidates will compete for 887 seats from at least 70 parties.
While the incumbent Ramaphosa is holding on again, his biggest rivals include John Steenhuisen of Democratic Alliance and Julius Malema of Economic Freedom Fighters.
Former South African President Jacob Zuma dances on stage before speaking to supporters at the Puma Stadium in Emalahleni, South Africa on May 26, 2024.
Peranders Pettersson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
They all face a familiar enemy who could serve as kingmaker in this election. Former President Jacob Zuma is currently leader of uMkhonto weSizwe, a political party that was only founded in December 2023.
Zuma, who was sentenced to 15 months in prison for failing to appear at a corruption investigation, recently won a court case that allowed him to run for parliament.
'Significantly negative market reaction'
If the polls are to be believed, the election results will ensure that South Africa gets its first coalition government.
Fitch Solutions analysts expect the ANC to form a coalition with smaller parties, “enabling it to remain the main policy driver.”
However, they flagged several unexpected – but possible – outcomes that could be negatively received by the markets.
“We continue to highlight three alternative scenarios: the ANC scrapping a narrow majority, an ANC-Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) coalition, or a victory for the opposition coalition, the Multi-Party Charter,” the Fitch Solutions analysts wrote earlier this month . .
“While each of the coalition groups will pose headwinds for policymaking and have a negative impact on investor sentiment, we signal that an ANC-EFF coalition would likely result in a significantly adverse market reaction, with negative implications for bond yields and the rand. “
