Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur region on September 13, 2023.
Vladimir Smirnov | Episode | Getty Images
As Russian President Vladimir Putin visits North Korea on Tuesday for the first time in 24 years, Western officials will closely watch the two-day trip for signs of a closer military partnership between the nuclear-armed states.
The Kremlin announced on Monday that Putin would pay a “friendly state visit” to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) at the invitation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, as ties between the two leaders grow ever closer.
North Korea has not been shy in its expressions of respect for Putin, describing him as a “brother in arms” in the fight against what both countries see as Western hegemony.
In any case, the country is rolling out the red carpet for the Russian president's visit, with videos and images showing on social media roads decorated with Russian flags and images of Putin before his arrival.
Ties between Russia and North Korea have grown increasingly closer in recent years, with the countries – both heavily sanctioned by the West – hailing their strategic cooperation on defense and trade. During the trip, Russian officials indicated that a “strategic cooperation partnership” could be signed, without providing further details.
Geopolitical analysts at risk consultancy Teneo noted on Monday that “the quid pro quo at the summit could be a new round of advanced measures.” transfer of military technology to the Kim regime on missiles, spy satellites and submarines, in violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions.”
Bad signs
Western officials will be closely watching the two-day visit for signs the partnership has made progress on security and defense issues.
US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller on Monday reiterated US claims that North Korea had delivered “dozens of ballistic missiles and more than 11,000 containers of munitions to Russia” for use in Ukraine, and that Putin's trip to Pyongyang is aimed at obtaining more weapons.
He said the US has seen Putin “become incredibly desperate in recent months” and looked to Iran and North Korea to make up for lost equipment in Ukraine. “So I'm pretty sure that's what he's planning to do,” Miller said in Reuters comments.
Analysts say the deepening relationship between Russia and “rogue state” North Korea is becoming increasingly dangerous for the West.
“This relationship, deeply rooted in history and reinvigorated by the war in Ukraine, undermines the security of Europe, Asia and the American homeland,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea, chairman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). ), said in analysis on Monday.
Cha describes military cooperation between Russia and North Korea as a “threat like no other” and said that “amid front-burner issues such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the [U.S.] The government is putting this issue on the back burner at its own peril.”
Cha, a former director for Asian affairs on the National Security Council, warned that Kim Jong Un will “likely feed Russia's war supplies indefinitely,” and there are particular concerns about what Putin will give in return.
Relations between the countries have improved since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, with Pyongyang accused of supplying ballistic missiles and millions of artillery shells to Moscow for use against Ukraine. Both deny the allegations, though US military intelligenceUN observers and Ukraine say there is evidence to the contrary.
In return for military hardware, analysts say Russia will likely provide the isolated North Korean state with food, fuel, financial support and military technology.
“Kim wants advanced telemetry, nuclear submarine technology, military satellite items and advanced intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology,” Cha said. “Kim has also expressed satisfaction over his plans for nuclear submarines, which is a very bad sign. This aspect of the relationship not only destabilizes security on the peninsula and in Asia; it also increases the direct threat that North Korea poses to the [U.S.] native country.”
It is unclear what further strategic cooperation between North Korea and Russia might entail. Ahead of his trip, Putin said the countries would work together to counter Western sanctions – imposed on Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons and missile testing program and on Moscow over the war in Ukraine, among other things – and to set up independent transaction systems.
“We are willing to work closely together to bring more democracy and stability to international relations,” Putin said in an article for North Korean state media Rodong Sinmun.
“To do this, we will develop alternative trade and mutual settlement mechanisms not controlled by the West, jointly oppose unlawful unilateral restrictions and shape the architecture of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia,” he said in the article. published on the Kremlin website.
