Mexico didn’t go into the Copa America with high expectations. A year and a half after exiting the group stage at the 2022 World Cup, two lackluster games in the Concacaf Nations League and two coaching changes later, many realized that this wasn’t the El Tri team that was once North America’s gold standard. But when the national team exited the Copa America group stage on Sunday after a 0-0 draw with Ecuador, the team managed to surprise by how low they’ve actually sunk.
Jaime Lozano's side needed a win against Ecuador to rise from third to second place and secure a place in the quarter-finals at the weekend. The team seemed to understand the task from the kickoff at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, controlling nearly 60% of the ball and outscoring the opponent 19-9. There was only one problem: they never really showed the quality to get them over the line.
Look no further than their offensive effort on Sunday. Mexico took 13 shots on goal before finally hitting their first in the 65th minute. Their shot quality improved from there, but they only managed 0.86 expected goals, sending some of their best shots off target. The belief that Mexico would actually score with one of their many chances – if there were any chances at all prior to the match – slowly seeped out of the game each time they failed to capitalize on a shot. As a result, the intensity that a high shot count usually brings was negated by an inefficiency that lingered over their performance, creating a sense of dullness that is slowly becoming Mexico’s trademark.
Their attacking prowess was perhaps Mexico’s biggest shortcoming during the Copa America, where they managed just one goal in three games, well short of the 4.71 expected goals they generated throughout the competition. Their inability to score made their defensive stability – they conceded just once during the group stage – questionable, but perhaps not too surprising given the attacking lineup they brought to the tournament. No player on this young El Tri team has more than 13 international goals, an indication that a team trying to start over has yet to deliver the renewal they hoped for.
Mexico’s struggles at the top are also reflected in the fans’ new choice to be the face of the team, Santiago Gimenez. The 23-year-old has generated a notable buzz in Europe after a 26-goal, eight-assist season for Feyenoord, positioning himself as a young player many hope will come good in the near future. However, his potential has not yet fully translated to the national team – he has just four goals in 30 appearances, none of which came in the Copa America. His breakthrough moment for El Tri is yet to come and the pressure to do so is showing no sign of abating – it is rare for the pressure of expectation to ease for Mexico, and there is no reason to expect the home crowd to take it easy on the national team’s decline here, just two years before a home World Cup.
Years into the downward trend, it seems pretty easy to predict where Mexico goes from here. A fast-moving association could easily fire the head coach again because he feels no special bond with Lozano, as he was an interim who got the full-time job because he won the Concacaf Gold Cup, in which the B and C teams of the region participated. The team has not improved in the year since he took over and it seems unlikely that many will miss him.
However, Lozano isn't really the problem here. The hiring and firing wave in Mexico only creates a cycle of uncertainty that could hinder the program's progress as the solution is believed to be just one coach away. It would be unwise to suggest that any talented coach could get the best out of this group, but the question facing Mexico over the next two years is this: how much higher is their ceiling? There's no doubt El Tri has underperformed, but dreams of a deep run in 2026 – and for the foreseeable future – could be more ambitious than they ever were.
There is still time to turn things around and really get to work once the World Cup starts. However, exiting the Copa America group stage suggests there is still a lot of work to be done, and a two-year timeline may not be enough to accomplish those tasks.
