The contrast between the two sides in recent weeks could not have been clearer. Republicans greeted Donald Trump’s conviction in Manhattan by rallying behind his cause, insisting that the bad news was actually good news. Democrats greeted President Biden’s dreadful debate performance on Thursday night by cranking the concerns up to 11 — in a way that only Democrats can. Democrat-leaning pundits, newspaper editorial boards and many Democratic voters have called for Biden to step aside.
Yes, it remains a far-fetched idea. Political junkies (I raise my hand here) often salivate at the prospect of an “open” or contested convention, however unlikely.
But the fact that it is being talked about so openly and honestly, by so many people is certainly a reflection of a historical moment. It is also a very charged moment without great answers for the blue side.
Let's take a look at where we are now.
How Bad Biden's Debate Was
We have limited polling data on this so far, especially when it comes to how the Trump-Biden matchup might have shifted. But a few findings stand out:
- The debate appears to be compounding Biden's already difficult age problem. CBS/YouGov poll showed that the percentage of voters who said Biden has the requisite mental and cognitive abilities to serve dropped from 35 percent last month to 27 percent after the debate. A whopping 4 in 10 Democrats now say he is not up to the task.
- The same poll found that 45 percent of Democrats said Biden should step aside for another candidate, and 72 percent of Americans said Biden should not run. Suffolk University Survey A poll found that 41 percent of Democrats believed Biden should be replaced.
- a CNN Poll A survey conducted shortly after the debate found that Biden's positive approval rating dropped from 37 percent to 31 percent among debate viewers, while Trump's rating rose from 40 percent to 43 percent. (And it's worth noting that this is the same people (contacted before and after the debate.)
- The Suffolk poll found that about 1 in 6 voters who supported Biden in 2020 said the debate made them more likely to support Trump (3 percent) or a third-party candidate (13 percent).
Ultimately, the debate is likely to have only a limited impact on the mutual outcome, which has been stalled by other important developments. And that could reduce the urgency to replace Biden. But it appears Biden's existing weaknesses have only grown in a race where he already appeared to be behind.
The blame game is in full swing, and everyone wants answers. The Washington Post’s Tyler Pager interviewed eight people involved in or briefed on Biden’s debate preparation, and the reporting is unlikely to reassure Democrats.
Pager reports that Biden spent a week preparing for the debate at Camp David, and that his preparation covered every major topic that came up. But Biden's response to a late-night question about age, for example, barely reflected his preparation:
So aides were stunned by his performance. Many felt they had never seen him collapse so dramatically. Biden, after all, was a veteran of countless debates — as a senator, vice presidential nominee and presidential candidate. And they were confused as to why he gave a very different answer to the age question than the one they had spent more than a week perfecting.
While Biden's allies and experts have called for him to step aside, the official Democratic Party has so far resisted those calls and assured it will continue with Biden.
Virtually no Democratic lawmakers are actually entertaining the idea — at least not publicly. (Though one of the replacements being speculated about, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, did raise some eyebrows Monday by saying, “Only the president can determine his future. … He is the candidate, and as long as he is, I support him.”)
Part of that is that Democrats don’t want to undermine Biden. But a big part of it is a reflection of how difficult and risky such a move would be. Biden would have to withdraw, releasing his delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August, and they would then choose a replacement.
The most likely replacement would be Vice President Harris, but she has her own major political problems. And imagine if the convention bypassed the first black vice president at a time when one of the party's biggest problems is the erosion of black support.
Biden's campaign suggested over the weekend that the alternatives would fare no better, pointing to polls showing them performing similarly to BidenBut many of them are largely unknown to the American people.
Why this is all so loaded
Even if Democrats can’t or won’t replace Biden, the fact that this discussion is even happening is deeply problematic for them. That’s because the conversation assumes that Biden might not be up to the task. That task is to be the candidate, but it can’t help but be a reflection on his ability to also serve as president. And here are Biden’s own allies who are questioning all of that.
Moreover, this debate is saturated with enormous passions. Trump is the great unifying force for Democrats, but they see him as such an existential threat to the country that it will be difficult for those involved to keep their mouths shut and just be team players.
In other words, things could get worse before they ever get better for Democrats. as it will be better.
Trump's immunity win – and its lasting consequences
Monday brought another major blow to Democrats, when the Supreme Court handed Trump a significant, if not total, victory in his immunity case. But the fallout is likely to last long after the 2024 campaign.
The court ruled that presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution for actions they take as president. They are now absolutely immune for actions they take in the exercise of their “core constitutional powers” and have a presumption of immunity for all official acts.
The court said presidents are not immune from actions outside their official duties, meaning Trump’s federal election subversion prosecution can proceed.
But not before U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan must consider what can even be part of the case at this point — a process that would require significant involvement and would exclude any significant evidence against Trump. What’s more, it means it’s even less likely that Trump’s case will be concluded or even begin before the 2024 election.
Beyond the 2024 campaign, the decision isolates future presidents in important ways, including Trump, who has made clear he is prepared to retest the limits of his power if elected to a second term. Two of the dissenting liberal justices even wrote that it could prevent a president from being prosecuted for ordering the assassination of a political rival or directing the military to carry out a coup.
“In every use of official power, the president is now a king above the law,” wrote Justice Sonia Sotomayor.
The decision injects new urgency into issues of democracy in the 2024 campaign. But so far, Democrats have failed to gain much traction.
How Terribly Bad Was Biden?
How bad was Biden's debate, historically?
The polls cited above showed that voters said Trump won the debate by 34 to 40 points.
While the reasons for his bad reviews may vary, to have debates in which a candidate lost badly in the eyes of the public — several, in fact. And they were often the first debates.
Per CNN's previous polls:
- Biden won the first debate of 2020 against Trump by 32 points (60-28).
- Hillary Clinton won the first debate in 2016 against Trump by 35 points (62-27).
- Mitt Romney won the first debate in 2012 against President Barack Obama by 42 points (67-25).
- And Bill Clinton won the second debate of 1992 over President George H.W. Bush by 42 points (58-16). Independent Ross Perot was considered the winner with 15 percent.
That list shows that two of the four candidates who were defeated in a debate went on to win the election (Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012).
