Chinese Coast Guard ships fire water cannons at a Philippine supply ship Unaizah on May 4, en route to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024. China said the United States should refrain from “ fueling trouble” or taking sides on the South China Sea issue, after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a security deal with Manila extended to attacks on the Philippine coast guard.
Adrian Portugal | Reuters
China is using “gray zone tactics” against the Philippines at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal reef, a move likely aimed at avoiding US intervention in the region, according to Rahman Yaacob of the Lowy Institute.
Last week, Philippine officials said Chinese troops damaged the country's boats and injured several sailors near the Second Thomas Shoal – claimed by both Beijing and Manila – in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.
Speaking to CNBC's “Squawk Box Asia,” Yaacob, a researcher at the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, said that while China was testing its borders at the Shoal, it has strategically avoided sparking a broader conflict despite the final escalation.
“The Chinese are experts at operating just below conventional warfare; they are good at using gray zone tactics against their opponents,” he said, adding that the incident was unlikely to trigger an existing defense pact between the US and the Philippines.
Gray zone tactics refer to “coercive actions that avoid armed conflict but go beyond normal diplomatic, economic and other activities,” according to the Rand Corporation.
In 2020, Chinese soldiers were involved in a border conflict with India in a disputed area of the Himalayas. Although 20 Indian soldiers were killed, no weapons were fired and the conflict did not escalate into a direct military conflict, Yaacob pointed out.
Philippine officials have so far avoided invoking the mutual defense treaty with the US, even as they have criticized “illegal and aggressive actions” by Chinese ships. of disrupting its supply missions to the Shoal.
“But I suspect that if the Chinese use kinetic force, such as firing missiles or using weapons against Philippine forces, it could actually trigger the defense treaty,” Yaacob warned.
Beijing has disputed any wrongdoing, with a spokesperson saying on Thursday that the country had taken “necessary” measures to “securing sovereignty” during the last Second Thomas Shoal clash.
Philippine officials said the country will continue to oppose the Chinesereckless behaviorin the South China Sea. On Friday, officials said they were “challenged“Four Chinese military ships in Philippine waters of the Balabac Strait.
“I think China wants to avoid a conventional war with the US for the time being because it knows it will have terrible consequences,” Yaacob said, adding that Washington was also dealing with conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. said on Sunday that the country was not in inciting wars and would not resort to the use of violence and intimidation.
While Yaacob said de-escalation between the Philippines and China, as well as the US, is currently in the best interest of all parties, the Chinese could become more aggressive and seize Philippine boats, potentially harming Philippine Navy personnel .
“This is something that the US and the Philippines should carefully consider,” he added.
