A person looks from behind at campaign posters of outgoing deputy Danielle Simonnet (20th arrondissement of Paris, 15th constituency), member of the parliamentary group La France Insoumise (LFI NUPES, left-wing opposition party), dissident candidate (part of the frondeurs and frondeuses of the LFI) in the early parliamentary elections. She is running against the official candidate nominated by the LFI for the Nouveau Front Populaire Celine Verzeletti (supported by Jean Luc Melenchon) in Paris, France on June 30, 2024.
Amaury Cornu | Afp | Getty Images
According to analysts, left-wing and centrist parties in France are doing their utmost to prevent their rival Rassemblement National from winning the current parliamentary elections. This after support for the extreme right-wing faction increased sharply in the first round of elections on Sunday.
Figures reported Monday morning by the French Ministry of the Interior A survey found that the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies together won 33.1% of the vote, while the left-wing alliance Nouveau Popular (NFP) won 28% and French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist bloc Samen 20 % achieved.
The results of the first round of elections have sparked discussions between left-wing and centrist politicians about how to minimize the number of parliamentary seats the RN will win in the second round of voting on July 7.
“Our goal is clear: to prevent Rassemblement National from gaining an absolute majority in the second round, dominating the National Assembly and governing the country with the disastrous project it has,” said French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, an ally of Macron. wrote late Sunday evening on social media platform X, according to a translation from CNBC.
“I say it with the force that the moment demands of each of our voters: not a single vote must go to the Rassemblement National,” he added.
Tactical voting in the second round
French legislative elections are typically held in two rounds, with parties required to obtain at least 12.5% of the vote in a constituency to advance to the decisive second round.
“More than half of the 577 seats in parliament, a historically high number, are expected to go to the second round, with many tactical votes now likely to take place,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note on Monday.
Politicians from several left-wing and centrist parties have now called for candidates who finished third against far-right candidates to withdraw from the elections. in an attempt to marshal support into one concentrated front against the RN.
The final outcome of the elections will therefore depend on striking deals between left-wing and centrist parties, Mujtaba Rahman and Anna-Carina Hamker of the Eurasia Group said in a note on Sunday.
“Everything now depends on a fight between the left-wing alliance and President Emmanuel Macron's defeated center to strike national and local deals and block possible RN victories in the second round next Sunday,” the spokesman said.
The large number of seats where three candidates are still in the race means there is a good chance that so-called Republican fronts will emerge that could help defeat the RN candidates who narrowly won in the first round, Rahman and Hamker said.
However, there are other factors that could stand in the way of the ambition to defeat the far right, they point out. Voter turnout may be different and tactical voting may be less successful than hoped.
Three scenarios
Uncertainty about what lies ahead remains, Pascal Lamy, vice president of the Paris Peace Forum and former director general of the World Trade Organization, told CNBC on Monday.
“The second round looks extremely uncertain,” he said, adding that many three-way races will be “very exciting.”
Three potential election outcomes remain, Lamy said: a far-right majority in parliament, a hung assembly or a coalition with the far right. He suggested that all three options remain on the table for now.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, emphasized the second scenario.
“The most likely outcome remains a hung parliament in which neither the far right, nor the united left, nor Macron's centrists can muster a majority. In this case, any (new) government would not get much done,” he said on Monday.
Correction: Pascal Lamy is a former director general of the World Trade Organization. An earlier version misspelled the group's name.
